So I decided to take my best weekly normalized power output for every week this year and plot it versus time. I was curious what I would predict as my future 1 hour power at some future date if certain trends that established were continued throughout the year.The arbitrary date I chose was July 1st, 2008. The chart to the right shows my max normalized power each week prior to my injury. The trendline shows that if I continued along the route I was on, by July 1st I would have an FTP around 327 Watts. While I recognize that my FTP development during the race season would not likely look like this trend, I wanted to start with this as a baseline. I don't really think it is that unrealistic. I had hit 317 Watts for 57 minutes in a race in late March. I think 10 more Watts would have been expected since I had not yet peaked according to my training schedule...
The chart to the left is data after the injury, but before I started feeling good. This is the same date as my ergomo swap from old bike to new bike. I wanted to view this one because I was curious what the trendline would look like across that time period and where it would take me. This trend has me hitting out on July 1 at around 312 Watts.
So, what does all this mean? Not that much really. The most interesting thing to me is that there is not a whole lot of difference between any of them. They predict a range from 312 W to 327 W and I would be happy to fall anywhere in that range. I mainly wanted to see where things could have been had I not gotten hurt. Maybe things are not as bad as I thought. I also wanted to see how crazy the trend looked when I take into account the data post bike switch over. I have had trouble believing in some of the ergomo data, but as of late I have started to think it is right. I think the trending shows that this might be true. The jumps and drops seem to match very well to the trend and this makes me feel better.
The chart to the left is data after the injury, but before I started feeling good. This is the same date as my ergomo swap from old bike to new bike. I wanted to view this one because I was curious what the trendline would look like across that time period and where it would take me. This trend has me hitting out on July 1 at around 312 Watts.The last chart (below) shows all post injury data up to my latest download. This trendline predicts a raise in FTP to around 322 Watts by July 1st.
So, what does all this mean? Not that much really. The most interesting thing to me is that there is not a whole lot of difference between any of them. They predict a range from 312 W to 327 W and I would be happy to fall anywhere in that range. I mainly wanted to see where things could have been had I not gotten hurt. Maybe things are not as bad as I thought. I also wanted to see how crazy the trend looked when I take into account the data post bike switch over. I have had trouble believing in some of the ergomo data, but as of late I have started to think it is right. I think the trending shows that this might be true. The jumps and drops seem to match very well to the trend and this makes me feel better. Anyway, it was nice to see it all in one place. I would like to think that I could drop 5-10 lbs in the next month and raise my FTP over 320 Watts. This would get my pump primed for the late season race and make me feel like all the winter hours were worthwhile.
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